變動 Change

如今誰都會認知到目前是個充滿變動的時代，但要「承認」這個事實卻有心理上的障礙。

These days, everyone acknowledges that we’re living in a time of constant change—but truly accepting that reality comes with a psychological hurdle.

為什麼會有這種體會？因為我職場上的主管，民國4年級生，生活在政治相較單純、經濟起飛的年代，那時累積的經驗都是有用的，因為日子過得慢且都很相仿，明日是昨日的累積。

Why does it feel this way? I think of my boss at work, someone born in the 1950s, who grew up during a period of relative political stability and economic boom. Back then, the knowledge and experience one accumulated were useful for a long time, because life moved slowly and predictably. Tomorrow was simply an extension of yesterday.

但自從網路、智慧手機普及以來，社會已經不同了，政治環境甚至自然環境也大不同。這兩三年來我常說「已經無法思考三天以後的事情了」，聽起來很荒謬，但事實總是擺在眼前。

But things have shifted dramatically since the rise of the internet and smartphones. Society is no longer the same—neither is the political landscape, nor even the natural environment. In the past couple of years, I’ve often said, “It’s impossible to plan more than three days ahead now.” It sounds absurd, but the evidence is all around us.

那些我主管常說的「以過往的經驗上來講，『理論上』不可能發生」的事情都發生了；「根本不需要投注過多成本在防範那些機率上很低、幾乎不會發生」的事情也發生了。

Events that my boss used to say were “theoretically impossible” have happened. Situations that “weren’t worth preparing for because the probability was too low” have also come to pass.

曾經趁著在和主管談天時提到這件事情，我對他說(大意是)「或許過往的經驗都不管用了，以前認為不大可能發生的事情，現在都可能發生了，我們沒辦法預防，只能提升應變的速度了」。

Once, during a casual conversation with him, I mentioned this shift. I said something along the lines of, “Maybe past experience doesn’t hold up anymore. The things we used to think were unlikely are now happening. We can’t prevent them—we can only get better at reacting quickly.”

主管雖然表面上認同我說的話，但實際上在許多場合，他仍會說「這理論上不會發生」，每次聽到他這麼說我心裡都會冒白眼，「別再這樣說了！」在心裡吶喊。

He nodded in agreement at the time. But in practice, at meetings or discussions, he still says things like, “This theoretically won’t happen.” And every time I hear that, I mentally roll my eyes, shouting inside, “Please stop saying that!”

抱持這樣想法的同時，我內心還有一個想法是，「只有智人的慾望、人性是不變的」，現在智人和原始智人根本沒有差別，當發生無法理解的現代智人行為時，我會想，「這都發生過了」。

While I hold these thoughts, there’s another idea lingering in my mind: the only things that haven’t changed are human desires and human nature. Homo sapiens today are no different from our primitive ancestors. When I encounter baffling behavior in modern humans, I think, “This has all happened before.”

有點悲哀，但現在能撫慰我的想法都是反進步論的。

It’s a little disheartening, but strangely enough, the thoughts that bring me comfort now are often anti-progressive ones.